Analytics Saves Lives During the COVID-19 Crisis in Chile

During the COVID-19 crisis, the Chilean Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Sciences, Technology, Knowledge and Innovation partnered with the Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería (ISCI) and the telecommunications company ENTEL, to develop innovative methodologies and tools that placed operations research (OR) and analytics at the forefront of the battle against the pandemic. These innovations have been used in key decision aspects that helped shape a comprehensive strategy against the virus, including tools that (1) provided data on the actual effects of lockdowns in different municipalities and over time;(2) helped allocate limited intensive care unit (ICU) capacity;(3) significantly increased the testing capacity and provided on-the-ground strategies for active screening of asymptomatic cases;and (4) implemented a nationwide serology surveillance program that significantly influenced Chile's decisions regarding vaccine booster doses and that also provided information of global relevance. Significant challenges during the execution of the project included the coordination of large teams of engineers, data scientists, and healthcare professionals in the field;the effective communication of information to the population;and the handling and use of sensitive data. The initiatives generated significant press coverage and, by providing scientific evidence supporting the decision making behind the Chilean strategy to address the pandemic, they helped provide transparency and objectivity to decision makers and the general population. According to highly conservative estimates, the number of lives saved by all the initiatives combined is close to 3,000, equivalent to more than 5% of the total death toll in Chile associated with the pandemic until January 2022. The saved resources associated with testing, ICU beds, and working days amount to more than 300 million USD.

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 variant Gamma (P.1) in Chile increased ICU admission risk three to five-fold.

The 2021 wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chile was characterized by an explosive increase in ICU admissions, which disproportionately affected individuals younger than 60 years. This second wave was also accompanied by an explosive increase in Gamma (P.1) variant detections and the massive vaccine rollout. We unveil the role the Gamma variant played in stressing the use of critical care, by developing and calibrating a queueing model that uses data on new onset cases and actual ICU occupancy, symptom's onset to ICU admission interval, ICU length-of-stay, genomic surveillance, and vaccine effectiveness. Our model shows that infection with the Gamma (P.1) variant led to a 3.5-4.7-fold increase in ICU admission for people younger than 60 years. This situation occurred on top of the already reported higher infection rate of the Gamma variant. Importantly, our results also strongly suggest that the vaccines used in Chile (inactivated mostly, but also an mRNA), were able to curb Gamma variant ICU admission over infections.

COVID-19 lateral flow IgG seropositivity and serum neutralising antibody responses after primary and booster vaccinations in Chile: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: By June 30, 2022, 92·6% of the Chilean population older than 18 years had received a full primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccine series, mostly with CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), and 78·4% had received a booster dose, mostly heterologous with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (AstraZeneca). We previously reported national seroprevalence data from lateral flow testing of IgG SARS-CoV-2 antibodies up to 16 weeks after primary vaccination. Our aim here was to study IgG seropositivity dynamics up to 30 weeks after primary vaccination and, in CoronaVac recipients, up to 26 weeks after booster vaccination, and to establish the correlation between lateral flow tests and neutralising antibody titres. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, testing stations for SARS-CoV-2 IgG detection were selected and installed from March 12, 2021, in hotspots in 24 large Chilean cities, and were maintained until March 31, 2022. Individuals voluntarily approaching the testing stations were invited to perform a rapid lateral flow test via a finger prick and complete a questionnaire. Between Aug 12, 2021, and April 1, 2022, volunteers seeking medical care in the Mutual de Seguridad de la Cámara Chilena de la Construcción provided blood samples for lateral flow testing and neutralising antibody studies; inclusion criteria were age at least 18 years, history of complete primary vaccination series with CoronaVac, BNT162b2, or ChAdOx1, or no vaccine, and no previous COVID-19 diagnosis. We tested the difference in IgG positivity across time, and between primary and booster doses, in all eligible participants with complete records, controlling for age, gender, and comorbidities. We also assessed the predictive power of neutralising antibody titres and sociodemographic characteristics on the probability of IgG positive results using multivariable logistic regression. FINDINGS: Of 107 220 individuals recruited at the testing stations, 101 070 were included in our analysis (59 862 [59·2%] women and 41 208 [40·8%] men). 65 902 (65·2%) received primary vaccination series with CoronaVac, 18 548 (18·4%) with BNT162b2, and 606 (0·6%) with ChAdOx1, and 16 014 (15·8%) received no vaccine. Among the 61 767 individuals with a complete primary vaccination series with CoronaVac, 608 (1·0%) received a CoronaVac booster, 10 095 (16·3%) received a BNT162b2 booster, and 5435 (8·8%) received a ChAdOx1 booster. After ChAdOx1 primary vaccination, seropositivity peaked at week 5 after the second dose, occurring in 13 (92·9%, 95% CI 79·4-100·0) of 14 individuals. In participants who received a complete CoronaVac primary series, the decline in seropositivity stabilised at week 18 after the second dose (86 [44·7%, 95% CI 41·8-47·7] of 1087 individuals), whereas after receiving BNT162b2, seropositivity declined slightly by week 25 after the second dose (161 [94·2%, 90·6-97·7] of 171). A lower proportion of individuals who received the CoronaVac primary series and a homologous booster were seropositive (279 [85·6%, 95% CI 81·8-89·4] of 326) by weeks 2-18 than those who received a BNT162b2 booster (7031 [98·6%, 98·4-98·9] of 7128) or a ChAdOx1 booster (2893 [98·0%, 97·5-98·5] of 2953). The correlation between IgG positivity and log of the infectious dose in 50% of neutralising antibodies was moderate, with a sensitivity of 81·4% (95% CI 76·3-86·6) and specificity of 92·5% (73·3-100·0). INTERPRETATION: Dynamic monitoring of IgG positivity to SARS-CoV-2 can characterise antibody waning over time in the absence or presence of booster doses, providing relevant data for the design of vaccination strategies. The correlation between lateral flow test IgG titres and neutralising antibody concentrations suggests that they could be a quick and effective surveillance tool to measure protection against SARS-CoV-2. FUNDING: Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería, Subsecretaría de Redes Asistenciales, Ministry of Health, Chile, and Mutual de Seguridad de la Cámara Chilena de la Construcción.

Global Perspectives on Immunization Against SARS-CoV-2 During Pregnancy and Priorities for Future Research: An International Consensus Paper From the World Association of Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in pregnancy is associated with a higher risk for severe morbidity and mortality when compared with infection in non-pregnant women of childbearing age. An increasing number of countries recommend immunization against SARS-CoV-2 in pregnant women. Recent studies provide preliminary and supportive evidence on safety, immunogenicity and effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in pregnant women; however, important knowledge gaps remain which warrant further studies. This collaborative consensus paper provides a review of the current literature on COVID-19 vaccines in pregnant women, identifies knowledge gaps and outlines priorities for future research to optimize protection against SARS-CoV-2 in the pregnant women and their infants.

Dynamic IgG seropositivity after rollout of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines in Chile: a sentinel surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: By July 14, 2021, 81·3 % of adults (aged ≥18 years) in Chile had received a first SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and 72·3% had received a second SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, with the majority of people given Sinovac's inactivated CoronaVac vaccine (75·3% of vaccines dispensed) or Pfizer-BioNTech's mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine (20·9% of vaccines dispensed). Due to the absence of simultaneous real-world data for these vaccines, we aimed to compare SARS-CoV-2 IgG positivity between vaccines using a dynamic national monitoring strategy. METHODS: From March 12, 2021, 28 testing stations for SARS-CoV-2 IgG detection were installed in hotspots based on cellular-phone mobility tracking within the most populated cities in Chile. Individuals voluntarily approaching the testing stations were invited to do a lateral flow test by finger prick and respond to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, vaccination status (including type of vaccine if one was received), variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 exposure, and comorbidities. We compared the proportion of individuals testing positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG across sites by week since vaccination between recipients of CoronaVac and BNT162b2. Unvaccinated participants served as a control population and were matched to vaccinated individuals on the basis of date of presentation to the testing station, gender, and age group. Individuals were excluded from the analysis if they were younger than 18 years, had no declared gender, had an invalid IgG test result, had previously tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection on PCR, could not recall their vaccination status, or had been immunised against COVID-19 with vaccines other than CoronaVac or BNT162b2. Here, we report data collected up to July 2, 2021. FINDINGS: Of 64 813 individuals enrolled, 56 261 were included in the final analysis, of whom 33 533 (59·6%) had received at least one dose of the CoronaVac vaccine, 8947 (15·9%) had received at least one dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, and 13 781 (24·5%) had not received a vaccine. SARS-CoV-2 IgG positivity during week 4 after the first dose of CoronaVac was 28·1% (95% CI 25·0-31·2; 220 of 783 individuals), reaching a peak of 77·4% (75·5-79·3; 1473 of 1902 individuals) during week 3 after the second dose. SARS-CoV-2 IgG positivity during week 4 after the first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was 79·4% (75·7-83·1; 367 of 462 individuals), increasing to 96·5% (94·9-98·1; 497 of 515 individuals) during week 3 after the second dose and remaining above 92% until the end of the study. For unvaccinated individuals, IgG seropositivity ranged from 6·0% (4·4-7·6; 49 of 810 individuals) to 18·7% (12·5-24·9; 28 of 150 individuals) during the 5 month period. Regression analyses showed that IgG seropositivity was significantly lower in men than women and in people with diabetes or chronic diseases for CoronaVac vaccine recipients (p<0·0001), and for individuals aged 60 years and older compared with people aged 18-39 years for both vaccines (p<0·0001), 3-16 weeks after the second dose. INTERPRETATION: IgG seropositivity was lower after CoronaVac than after BNT162b2 and declined over time since vaccination for CoronaVac recipients but not BNT162b2 recipients. Prolonged IgG monitoring will allow further evaluation of seropositivity overtime, providing data, in conjunction with effectiveness studies, for possible future re-assessment of vaccination strategies. FUNDING: Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería and Ministerio de Salud Chile. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A cross sectional study found differential risks for COVID-19 seropositivity amongst health care professionals in Chile.

OBJECTIVE: Health care workers (HCWs) are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection, however not all face the same risk. We aimed to determine IgG/IgM prevalence and risk factors associated with seropositivity in Chilean HCWs. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a nationwide, cross-sectional study including a questionnaire and COVID-19 lateral flow IgG/IgM antibody testing. All HCWs in the Chilean public health care system were invited to participate following the country's first wave. RESULTS: IgG/IgM positivity in 85,529 HCWs was 7.2%, ranging from 1.6% to 12.4% between regions. Additionally, 9.7% HCWs reported a positive PCR of which 47% were seropositive. Overall, 10,863 (12.7%) HCWs were PCR and/or IgG/IgM positive. Factors independently associated with increased odds ratios (ORs) for seropositivity were: working in a hospital, night shifts, contact with Covid-19, using public transport, male gender, age>45, BMI ≥30, and reporting ≥2 symptoms. Stress and/or mental health disorder and smoking were associated with decreased ORs. These factors remained significant when including PCR positive cases in the model. CONCLUSIONS: HCWs in the hospital were at highest risk for COVID-19, and several independent risk factors for seropositivity and/or PCR positivity were identified.

Norovirus: Facts and Reflections from Past, Present, and Future.

Human Norovirus is currently the main viral cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGEs) in most countries worldwide. Nearly 50 years after the discovery of the "Norwalk virus" by Kapikian and colleagues, the scientific and medical community continue to generate new knowledge on the full biological and disease spectrum of Norovirus infection. Nevertheless, several areas remain incompletely understood due to the serious constraints to effectively replicate and propagate the virus. Here, we present a narrated historic perspective and summarize our current knowledge, including insights and reflections on current points of interest for a broad medical community, including clinical and molecular epidemiology, viral-host-microbiota interactions, antivirals, and vaccine prototypes. We also include a reflection on the present and future impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Norovirus infection and disease.

The Role of Serology Testing in the Context of Immunization Policies for COVID-19 in Latin American Countries.

This review aims to explore the role and value of serology testing in the context of COVID-19 immunization policies in Latin American countries and the barriers and challenges to the adequate use and uptake of this tool. It builds on a review of the academic literature, evidence, and existing policies, and includes a multistage process of discussion and feedback by a group of five experts. Regional and country-level evidence and resources from five focus countries-Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico-were collected and analyzed. This review contains an overview of (1) the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the variants of concern and current testing strategies, (2) the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination, (3) the potential use of serology testing to support immunization initiatives, (4) the current frameworks for the use of serology testing in the region, and (5) the barriers and challenges to implementing serology testing in the context of COVID-19 immunization policies, including a discussion on the potential actions required to address these barriers and facilitate the uptake of this strategy in the region. Stakeholders can use elements of this document to guide timely decision-making, raise awareness, and inspire further studies.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Prevalence in Blood in a Large School Community Subject to a Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak: A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak affecting 52 people from a large school community in Santiago, Chile, was identified (12 March) 9 days after the first case in the country. We assessed the magnitude of the outbreak and the role students and staff played using self-administered antibody detection tests and a self-administered survey. METHODS: The school was closed on 13 March, and the entire community was placed under quarantine. We implemented a home-delivery, self-administered, immunoglobin (Ig) G/IgM antibody test and survey to a classroom-stratified sample of students and all staff from 4-19 May. We aimed to determine the overall seroprevalence rates by age group, reported symptoms, and contact exposure, and to explore the dynamics of transmission. RESULTS: The antibody positivity rates were 9.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.2-11.8) for 1009 students and 16.6% (95% CI, 12.1-21.9) for 235 staff. Among students, positivity was associated with a younger age (P = .01), a lower grade level (P = .05), prior real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity (P = .03), and a history of contact with a confirmed case (P < .001). Among staff, positivity was higher in teachers (P = .01) and in those previously RT-PCR positive (P < .001). Excluding RT-PCR-positive individuals, antibody positivity was associated with fever in adults and children (P = .02 and P = .002, respectively), abdominal pain in children (P = .001), and chest pain in adults (P = .02). Within antibody-positive individuals, 40% of students and 18% of staff reported no symptoms (P = .01). CONCLUSIONS: Teachers were more affected during the outbreak and younger children were at a higher risk for infection, likely because index case(s) were teachers and/or parents from the preschool. Self-administered antibody testing, supervised remotely, proved to be a suitable and rapid tool. Our study provides useful information for school reopenings.

Coronavirus Disease-19: An Interim Evidence Synthesis of the World Association for Infectious Diseases and Immunological Disorders (Waidid).

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly evolving, highly transmissible, and potentially lethal pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As of June 11 2020, more than 7,000,000 COVID-19 cases have been reported worldwide, and more than 400,000 patients have died, affecting at least 188 countries. While literature on the disease is rapidly accumulating, an integrated, multinational perspective on clinical manifestations, immunological effects, diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of COVID-19 can be of global benefit. We aimed to synthesize the most relevant literature and experiences in different parts of the world through our global consortium of experts to provide a consensus-based document at this early stage of the pandemic.

Optimizing RT-PCR detection of SARS-CoV-2 for developing countries using pool testing.

The global shortage of reagents and kits for nucleic acid extraction and molecular detection of SARS-CoV-2 requires new cost-effective strategies for the diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 cases, especially in countries that need to increase detection capacity. Pooled nucleic acid testing has been extensively used as a cost-effective strategy for HIV, HepB, HepC and influenza. Also, protocols dispensing of RNA extraction appears as an attractive option for detection of SARS-CoV-2. In this study, we found that pooling of 5 samples showed that CT variations were in the range of 1.0-4,5 units, with less likelihood of a false negative result. Results of the sample without nucleic acid ex-traction, was unsatisfactory, with a significant increase in CT values, and thus for risk of a false negative result. In conclusion, pooling nasopharyngeal samples with both automated and manual extraction proved reliable, and thus a potential efficient alternative for the diagnosis of suspected COVID-19 in developing countries.